Senior Manager, Forecasting & Analytics (NARS)

Job Summary:

The Senior Manager, Marketing forecasting & analytics will play a pivotal role in the brand’s success through meticulous forecasting and strategic analyses. In this role, the Senior Manager will develop and lead marketing projections at the monthly level for core business as well as new product launches – utilizing knowledge provided by the Global team, US marketing support plans, historical performance, and the competitive landscape.

Overall responsibilities will support decision-making on overall business strategies, financial projections and tactical day-to-day marketing and launch activity. The ability to translate data into strategic recommendations will be crucial for enhancing NARS’ market positioning and achieving sustained growth in the competitive beauty industry.  The ideal candidate is highly analytical, detail-oriented and embraces a fast-paced, often changing environment.

Primary Duties & Responsibilities: 

• Develop an accurate monthly demand forecast at the category, collection and SKU level, inclusive of core, new launches, and limited-edition products  
• Ensure forecast assumption accuracy through analysis of market trends, promotional activity, new launch volume, VM & gondola updates, distribution expansion and seasonal volume.
• Partner with Sales, Demand, and other Marketing teams to gather inputs and align on retail sales
• Partner with Demand to ensure an executable supply plan is developed to meet forecast requirements and understand known supply constraints or excess inventory risks to communicate with broader team
• Analyze historical sales data and future programming to achieve continuous improvement in demand plan accuracy
• Update and circulate weekly and monthly business performance reports to key stakeholders, including Mix of Business reports, NPD reports, and other monthly reporting documents, maintaining retail sales data integrity as required
• Conduct pricing analyses and develop pricing strategies
• Participate and support Executive Director in annual budget, brand plans, reforecast process, and other key meetings as required
• Provide actionable market insights and strategy recommendations to business partners
• Execute ad hoc analysis supporting key strategic questions for the Division
• Support long-term strategic distribution related projects
• Stay up to date on emerging technologies and methodologies related to planning and incorporate them into our processes as appropriate.
• Communicate effectively with senior management and other stakeholders, presenting complex data and insights in a clear and concise manner.
• Drive continuous improvement in our planning processes and tools, leveraging technology and automation where possible.

Working Relationships/Key Stakeholders:

• US brand sales & marketing teams
• Brand global marketing teams
• Region & Affiliate operations teams
• Global Brand holder and US finance teams
• SAC operations teams
• S&OP supply team / Manufacturing Supply Chain (MSC)
• NPD, New Product Development
• Affiliate Customer Service
• Master Data Management (MDM)

Financial Accountability 

• Forecast Accuracy
• Demand Plan vs Plan/LE alignment
• Service Fill-Rate (Missed $)
• Assist Finance with latest projections to support quarterly reporting.
• Facilitate review and update of monthly mix of business, identifying any fluctuations in product lines vs original plan.
• Manage and share out updates o side by side – providing monthly updates during key leadership meetings.

Qualifications & Competencies: 

• Minimum 6-8 years of experience in Demand planning, business analytics or finance, experience within Beauty preferred
• Bachelor’s Degree required; MBA or graduate degree preferred
• Demonstrated ability to lead meetings to drive actions and accountability across cross-functional teams.
• Demonstrated ability to communicate complex topics clearly and concisely to peers and senior leadership
• Demonstrated ability to quickly adapt in a highly collaborative environment, a team player, fit with the NARS brand and culture
• Advanced excel skills: demonstrated ability to quickly manipulate large raw data sets to produce reporting that is intuitive and easy to read/understand, advanced formulas and pivot table, and macros knowledge a MAJOR PLUS
• Power Point: demonstrated ability to summarize analysis into slides appropriate for distribution across the organization/management
• Self-starter, resourceful, takes initiative, proactive, open & strong communicator, nimble and adaptable
• Strong organization and prioritization skills with a proven ability to multi-task and manage complexity
• Strong work ethic with capacity to operate independently and collaboratively in teams
• Attention to detail, strong sense of urgency while responding to fast paced, ever-changing environment

Trust 8 Competencies:

Below is a list of Trust 8 Competencies designed to help employees at Shiseido Americas succeed as the company continues to evolve and innovate.

1. Think Big: Adapt a big-picture perspective. Deliver new values through creativity.
2. Take Risks: Embrace Risk, Practice “Trial and Error and Trial”.
3. Hands On: Consider Front-line realities when making decisions. Take the lead from end to end.

4. Collaborate: Leverage the diverse capabilities of colleagues.
5. Be Open: Create an environment that encourages everyone to speak up.
6. Act with Integrity: Be sincere and humble at all times.
7. Be Accountable: Commit to the goal. Take accountability for the execution.
8. Applaud Success: Create a culture that celebrates success.

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Shiseido is an Equal Opportunity Employer and does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, gender identity, religion, sex, age, national origin, disability, veteran status, sexual orientation, genetic information or any other classification protected by Federal, State or Local law